Nobody pays the Ontario electricity “market” price except those who import Ontario electricity into other jurisdictions
In the majority of hours through the year, the price those customers pay for Ontario-generated electricity is well below the price Ontarians themselves pay for contracted nuclear, which is the second-cheapest electricity in the province.
The only times in the past 15 months that HOEP was close to the contracted price of nuclear were 8 a.m. to noon on Tuesdays and Fridays in January and Mondays and Thursdays in February, and in the 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. slot on Thursdays and Sundays and Noon to 4 p.m. on Sundays in August.
All other times of day, days of the week, and months of the year, mean HOEP was below the contracted price of nuclear. Ontario export markets got an excellent deal on Ontario electricity.
Ontario export markets got even better deals in the years following 2010. In 2018 for example, only the confidence interval for mean HOEP approached or exceeded the price of contracted nuclear, and only on three weekdays: once in January (4 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturdays), once in September (on Mondays, same time slot), and once in November (8 a.m. to noon on Fridays).
HOEP has little to do with demand conditions
Most daily demand maxima on non-holiday weekdays in Ontario occur between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. (the purple dash-dot line). From December 2024 to March 19 2025, only 3 daily maxima on non-holiday weekdays occurred outside that time slot. But as you can see, the only occurrence of mean HOEP even approaching cheapest nuclear supply price in that time slot on a non-holiday weekday was Thursdays in August.
In fact, the highest mean HOEP through the week over the period shown occurred in January and February, and in the 8 a.m. through 4 p.m. slot.
As we have discussed at length elsewhere, this could have been due to the “Black Swan” event in Quebec, which saw hydro reservoir water levels very low, necessitating near-continuous imports from Ontario.
HOEP is used by Ontario to sell superfluous power
It is clear from the figure that HOEP has little to do with demand conditions in Ontario, nor with Time of Use price of supply that most of us ratepayers have to pay. We’ve emphasized already that very few of the HOEPs is anywhere close to the contracted nuclear price. And if they’re not near that, they’re even further from contracted wind and solar.
Imagine trying to change our electricity trade deals with any of New York, Michigan, or Quebec, and instead demanding the contracted price of wind, the cheaper renewable source. We would suddenly have a problem. None of these jurisdictions would agree to such a ridiculously high price and yet Ontario still intends to keep wind and solar on the grid. This raises the average price of supply in Ontario, and makes electricity ever less competitive with natural gas, a fuel we must displace with electricity if we are to electrify fossil processes and meet climate goals.
Keeping us dependent on natural gas has suddenly become a serious strategic risk. Read on.
Firm power over time equals energy security
The roughly 9000 MW that Ontario nuclear plant workers put into the Ontario, Michigan, New York, and Quebec grids over the period was firm power. Each nuclear plant worker was personally responsible for over 1000 kilowatts—just over 1 megawatt—of power, and kept that pace every minute of the 1440 minutes of every day, for the 366 days of 2024 and 76 days so far of 2025.
That kind of performance is a vital component of energy security, which may be defined as degree of confidence that you’ll have as much power as you need exactly when you need it. Canadian nuclear workers prove every day that they are capable of supplying 9000 or so MW of clean, reliable, emission free power to their customers, whether those customers are in Ontario or in other provinces and US states. They do it for hundreds of days at a time, and have been doing so for literally decades. We can feel very confident in that aspect of Ontario’s energy system.
Beyond, or upstream of, nuclear power plants, there is similar certainty that the necessary conditions exist to ensure Canadian nuclear workers have the materials they need to perform at 9000 MW for hundreds of days at a time. Chief among these materials is fuel, i.e. uranium. The uranium Canadian nuclear workers use to make 9000 MW of power for hundreds of days at a time comes from Canadian mines. It is refined in Canada. It is fabricated into reactor fuel in Canada.
A Vector of Uncertainty: US natural gas supply to Ontario represents 20 million kilowatts of leverage
The US exports 494 million kWh per day, or 180 billion kWh per year through the Vector pipeline from Michigan to the Dawn Storage facility southeast of Sarnia.
Much of this is for industrial use, but a significant portion heats Ontario homes, schools, hospitals, and businesses. The facility operator, Enbridge, claims the site represents “reliability, liquidity, and security”. Germany claimed Russian gas supplies to Europe were just as secure, until February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing Germany to terminate the “secure” supply of vital energy. And now America has sided with Russia, which used natural gas supplies to Europe as a geopolitical weapon. Will America do the same to Canada? Vector represents 20,000 MW worth of leverage for a US president willing to break rules and violate trade agreements.
In the area of nuclear energy, America has no ability to impair Canadian nuclear workers’ daily work of providing 9000 MW to Ontario and other customers. That’s energy security.
More fun energy security–related facts
Average power Ontario exported to NY Jan 1 through Mar 6:
1385 MW, or 1.385 million kW
Electrical energy Ontario exported to NY Jan 1 through Mar 6:
2.16 million kWh )(1385 MW times 1560 hours)
Number of NY homes Ontario could have powered in Jan 2025:
Over 2 million (there are 7.6 million households in NY
What NY paid for Ontario electricity in January:
Roughly $75 million
What NY would have paid with the 25 percent surcharge:
Roughly $93.7 million
Average nuclear contribution to Ontario supply Jan 1 through Mar 6:
45.23 percent
Number of Ontario nuclear plant workers:
8400
Average nuclear power in Ontario supply Jan 1 through Mar 6:
9116 MW
Average New York residential monthly electricity consumption:
541 kWh
Average Ontario residential monthly electricity consumption:
750 kWh
Data sources
IESO generator output and capability (generators 20+ MW connected to the Ontario grid) http://reports.ieso.ca/public/GenOutputCapability/
IESO Import/Export http://reports.ieso.ca/public/IntertieScheduleFlowYear/ and
http://reports.ieso.ca/public/IntertieScheduleFlow/
IESO Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP) https://reports-public.ieso.ca/public/PriceHOEPPredispOR/
